Miami-Dade Condo Contracts Slipped in September, and the $500,000 to $1 Million Band Fell 20%

I counted every Miami-Dade condo listing in the Miami MLS that went under contract, by the date its status changed to pending, using the same Bridge IDX feed behind this site. The count was pulled on October 15, 2026. In September, 727 condos went under contract, against 770 in August and 755 in September 2025. That is 5.6% fewer than the month before and 3.7% fewer than a year ago.

October has started slower. From October 1 to 14, 298 Miami-Dade condos went under contract, against 331 in the same two weeks of 2025, a drop of 10%.

Where the drop is

Splitting September by list price shows the slowdown is not across the board. I compared September 2026 with September 2025:

• Under $500,000: 469 contracts, against 473 a year ago. Essentially flat.
• $500,000 to $1 million: 131 contracts, against 164. Down 20%.
• $1 million and up: 127 contracts, against 118. Up 8%.

The whole year-over-year decline, and then some, came from the middle of the market. The top of the market signed more contracts than last September.

Another market watcher sees the same slide. Peter Zalewski reported on October 10 that Miami-Dade pending condo sales fell from 833 deals on September 1 to 727 on October 6, their lowest level since January 28, 2025. He attributes part of it to buyers waiting out the November 3 election, along with mortgage rates, affordability, new Fannie Mae condo loan rules and rising condo costs.

My read

The middle band is where a higher mortgage rate changes a monthly payment the most, and rates rose fast. Freddie Mac's 30-year average went from 6.65% on August 20 to 7.40% on October 8, and it held at 7.40% this week, the first week without an increase after seven straight rises. A year ago it was 6.27%. The $1 million and up band signed more contracts anyway, which tells me those buyers are far less sensitive to the rate.

Contracts are the early signal. My Q3 data note showed closings up 6.9% from July to September, but closings reflect contracts signed one to two months earlier. A slower September and early October usually shows up in closed sales later in the fall.

If you are selling a condo between $500,000 and $1 million, price it against what is going under contract now, not what closed in the summer, and expect buyers to ask for credits. If you are buying in that band, you have leverage: a fifth fewer buyers signed contracts there in September than a year ago. Use it, especially in older buildings where the milestone inspection and reserve study leave questions open. Above $1 million, do not expect the same discounts, because those buyers are still signing.

How I counted: Miami-Dade County condominium listings (residential, for sale) in the Miami MLS via Bridge IDX, grouped by the date each listing went pending, pulled October 15, 2026. Price bands use the list price. A contract that falls apart and goes back on the market can drop out of these counts, so recent weeks may still shift slightly.