Amendment 3 Needs 60% of the Vote, and the Polls Land on Both Sides of It

Florida voters decide Amendment 3 on November 3. If it passes, the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes rises to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and the assessment cap for non-homestead property drops from 10% to 5%. Per News4JAX, the changes would take effect January 1, 2027, and the exemption would be indexed to inflation starting in 2029. The measure needs 60% of the vote to pass.

What the polls show

The polls do not agree, and none of them is a forecast. A St. Pete Polls survey reported by CBS12 on September 18 found 45% support statewide, with Republicans 63% in favor, independents 40% for and 32% against, and Democrats opposed 48% to 24%. Earlier polling ran higher: a University of North Florida poll in July, reported by Newsweek, found 61% support that fell to 45% when respondents were told about the budget impact.

Gov. DeSantis did not sound confident either when he spoke at the University of Alabama's Shelby Institute on September 18.

“It's a live issue. I don't know if it's going to pass with 60%.”Gov. DeSantis, Sep 18, 2026, per CBS12

He also said, “I wanted to be bolder. That would bring out more voters who were unenthused about voting.” On the other side of the campaign, Florida Realtors launched “Vote Yes on 3,” and its 2026 president, Chuck Bonfiglio Jr., said, “Affordability is on the forefront for every Floridian, and they need meaningful relief.”

What it means for Miami owners

• If you homestead your home. Your exemption on non-school taxes would grow in two steps. Broward Property Appraiser Marty Kiar estimates the average homeowner could save about $1,300 in the first year and about $2,300 in the second, and he added, “Those are averages.” That is a Broward estimate. I have not seen an official Miami-Dade figure.
• If you own a rental or second home. The 5% cap would limit how fast the assessed value of non-homestead property can rise. That is the provision investors should watch.
• If you are moving to Florida. Per News4JAX, people who are not Florida residents as of December 31, 2026 would get the expanded exemption starting in their fifth year.
• If it fails. The current rules stay, including an exemption of about $50,000 and the 10% non-homestead cap.

My read

I am not going to predict a vote the governor himself called a live issue. Plan for both outcomes. If you are buying a primary residence, run your carrying costs under today's tax rules and treat any savings as upside. If you own investment property, the 5% cap is the part that changes how your taxes grow over a long hold. If you are relocating from another state or country, raise the December 31, 2026 residency date with your tax advisor now.