Miami-Dade sales just rose for the ninth straight month, and luxury led

Miami-Dade home sales rose in May for the ninth straight month, and the luxury tier led the way. Total closed sales climbed 7.9% year over year, from 1,913 to 2,064. Dollar volume hit $2.3 billion, up 17.7%.

The split underneath the headline is the real story. Single-family sales rose 10.5% (943 to 1,042) with a median of $680,000, up 0.74% year over year. Condo sales rose 5.4% (970 to 1,022) but the median slipped 2.35% to $415,000. Sales above $1 million jumped 14.7%, from 389 to 446. Cash made up 38.7% of all closings.

“Miami and South Florida continue to be one of the nation's top-performing housing markets”Alfredo Pujol, MIAMI REALTORS Chairman

The split market in one report

Here is the number that should drive your decision: supply. Single-family inventory sits at 5.2 months with homes going to contract in 41 days. Condos sit at 12.9 months and 64 days. Active listings countywide fell 11.9% to 16,615.

My read: single-family sellers hold the cards. Five months of supply and 41 days to contract is a seller's market, full stop. Condo sellers face nearly 13 months of supply, which is firmly a buyer's market. Same county, same month, two completely different negotiating positions. If you are pricing a home right now, which side of that line you are on matters more than any headline about nine straight months of gains.

• Single-family sellers. 5.2 months of supply and 41 days to contract. You have leverage. Price with confidence.
• Condo sellers. 12.9 months of supply. Price sharp, stage well, expect a longer runway.
• Buyers. Cash is nearly 40% of closings. If you are financing, your offer needs to compete on terms, not just price.
• Luxury. $1M+ sales up 14.7%. The top of the market is where the momentum is.