Miami's condo market is living two realities at once

Listings doubled and older-stock prices are slipping, yet ultra-luxury is setting records in the same city. The headline median tells you nothing about your building.

Miami's condo market is not one market. It is two, running side by side. The luxury and branded-condo tier is on a tear while the older, aging stock is under real pressure, and the same city produced both stories at once.

Start with supply. Florida condo active listings have surged to 68,757 units, roughly double the level of 2023. The median time to close a condo sale stretched from 71 to 111 days. Across South Florida the median condo sale price slipped 1.5% year over year to $310,000.

Now the other reality. Miami's millionaire population is up 94% from 2014 to 2024. In the first quarter of 2026, South Florida transactions above $10 million doubled year over year to a record, and so did deals above $30 million. Four Seasons Coconut Grove, averaging around $10 million a unit, pre-sold 30% in two months. Nobu Residences in Brickell logged over $1 billion in reservations.

“You've got a lot of demand for Miami, but you've also got a lot of supply.”— Arnaud Karsenti, 13th Floor Investments

What splits the two markets

“The older condo stock, unfortunately, is facing a double whammy.”— Ana Bozovic, analyst

The dividing line is the building. Pre-1992 stock is being repriced by reserve mandates and special assessments, the double whammy Bozovic describes: rising carrying costs on one side, softer resale on the other. Branded and new-construction towers with modern reserves are pulling record capital at the same time.

My read: there is no single Miami condo number worth acting on. The headline median tells you almost nothing about your building. Two towers a block apart can be moving in opposite directions depending on age, reserves and assessment history. Building-level data decides everything here, which is exactly why I track it building by building.

• Check the reserves. A fully funded reserve study is now a value input, not a footnote.
• Know the assessment history. Past and pending special assessments move resale price directly.
• Age is a fault line. Pre-1992 buildings face the steepest repricing pressure.
• Ignore the median. Your building's data matters far more than any South Florida average.