Miami just ranked 4th in the country for pending home sales, at 6% mortgage rates

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro posted an 11.4% month-over-month jump in pending home sales, ranking 4th in the nation, according to NAR data. Nationally, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.8% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year.

The metros ahead of Miami were Kansas City at +20.1%, San Antonio at +15.7%, and Minneapolis-St. Paul at +13.9%, with Miami rounding out the top four at +11.4%. Notably, this happened while mortgage rates stayed put.

“A late spring buyer rush, even with mortgage rates not budging, is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers' acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal.”Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

What this means if you're buying

The story here is behavioral, not just statistical. Buyers came back in force without any drop in rates, which means the market has stopped waiting for the number to change and started transacting at above-6% as the baseline. When demand moves like this, it usually shows up in prices and competition next, not before.

My read: the two-year wait for 5% money has been expensive for a lot of people. Every month spent on the sidelines was rent paid, appreciation missed, and, in Miami specifically, inventory absorbed by buyers who moved. Rates are a cost you can refinance later. Price and the home you actually wanted are not. If the payment works today, waiting for a rate that may not come is the riskier position.

• Underwrite the payment, not the headline rate. If it fits your budget now, that's the real test.
• Watch competition, not just prices. Rising pending sales mean more buyers chasing the same homes.
• Get pre-approved before you shop. A rush market rewards buyers who can move fast.
• Plan to refinance, don't plan to wait. You can change the rate later, but not the price you paid or the home you lost.