Pending sales jumped 11.4% in a month while rates didn't budge. Buyers who kept waiting for 5% have quietly lost two years.
The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro posted an 11.4% month-over-month jump in pending home sales, ranking 4th in the nation, according to NAR data. Nationally, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.8% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year.
The metros ahead of Miami were Kansas City at +20.1%, San Antonio at +15.7%, and Minneapolis-St. Paul at +13.9%, with Miami rounding out the top four at +11.4%. Notably, this happened while mortgage rates stayed put.
“A late spring buyer rush, even with mortgage rates not budging, is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers' acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal.”— Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
The story here is behavioral, not just statistical. Buyers came back in force without any drop in rates, which means the market has stopped waiting for the number to change and started transacting at above-6% as the baseline. When demand moves like this, it usually shows up in prices and competition next, not before.
My read: the two-year wait for 5% money has been expensive for a lot of people. Every month spent on the sidelines was rent paid, appreciation missed, and, in Miami specifically, inventory absorbed by buyers who moved. Rates are a cost you can refinance later. Price and the home you actually wanted are not. If the payment works today, waiting for a rate that may not come is the riskier position.
Demand is back and Miami is in the top four nationally. Let's find the right home before the next buyer does.
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