The Fed Just Raised Rates a Quarter Point. Mortgage Rates Had Already Climbed All Summer.

Updated Oct 15, 2026: mortgage rates kept rising after this post. Freddie Mac's 30-year average reached 7.40% on October 8 and held there on October 15.

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 6.43% the week of July 2. By September 10 it was 6.76%, the highest reading of the summer and 41 basis points above the 6.35% of a year earlier. The 15-year sat at 6.09%. Every week in between is in the St. Louis Fed's MORTGAGE30US series, and the direction is one way: 6.49, 6.55, 6.58, 6.66, 6.69, 6.67, 6.65, 6.66, 6.71, 6.76.

What the Fed actually said in July

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. The vote was 9 to 3, and all three dissenters, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, preferred to raise the range by a quarter point. The statement called economic activity “expanding at a solid pace” and said inflation “remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal,” citing energy-driven supply shocks. That is not a committee warming up to cuts.

Then, on September 16, the committee did what the July dissenters wanted. It raised the target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, on a 12 to 0 vote, the first change since the December 2025 cut. The statement said inflation “remains elevated,” that “economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” and that the move “will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” The live strip below carries Freddie Mac's most recent weekly average and updates every Thursday, so the mortgage-market reaction will show up there first.

My read for Miami

Waiting for a rate cut cost buyers a third of a point this summer, on top of whatever the property did. The Freddie Mac figure describes conforming loans with 20% down and excellent credit; a Miami jumbo or condo borrower will be quoted something else, so shop the loan. Sellers: a credible offer in hand at 6.7% is worth more than a hypothetical one at 6.0%. Buyers: negotiate price and seller-paid points instead of waiting on Washington. The Fed has now told you, in a unanimous vote, which direction it is comfortable with.

Since this post: my October 8 Fed update covers the new projections and the minutes, and the 7.40% payment math shows what the climb does to a Miami payment.