Case-Shiller: Miami Home Prices Up 2.27% in a Year While Tampa Fell 1.19%

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller June index beat the national 1.5% gain in Miami, with an honest caveat in the seasonally adjusted monthly number.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices for June 2026, released August 25, put Miami's annual home-price gain at 2.27%, against 1.52% for the national index and 2.1% for the 20-city composite. Tampa fell 1.19% year over year. Miami's index level was 451.98. Chicago led the 20 cities at 6.9%, followed by New York at 4.8% and Cleveland at 4.1%; Seattle was weakest at negative 2.0%.

The caveats

Two things a careful reader should know. First, seasonally adjusted, Miami slipped 0.10% month over month while the national index rose 0.13%; the annual number is strong, the adjusted monthly number is soft. Second, Case-Shiller tracks single-family homes only. It says nothing about Miami condos, where the July association data showed the median falling to $400,000. Do not read 2.27% as a condo number. The July index publishes September 29.

My read

When a client asks whether “Florida is crashing,” this is the specific answer: Tampa is down, Miami single-family is up and still ahead of the national average, and the county's weakness is concentrated in resale condos with reserve and inspection questions. The seasonally adjusted dip tells me the pace of gains has cooled, which matches what I see in negotiations: houses are still selling, but at 95% of list rather than over it. Price for that market and you will trade. Price for 2022 and you will sit.